'Predictable Winners' Book Cover

Predictable Winners

A Handbook for Developing, Forecasting, and Launching New Products and Services
Stuart E. Jackson and Ilya Trakhtenberg
March 2025
318 Pages
Hardcover ISBN: 9781503638853
Ebook ISBN: 9781503642126
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A USA Today Bestseller

A leading global consulting firm on how to achieve new product launch success rates far above industry averages.

New product launches are risky. But disciplined innovation practices lead to success rates well above industry benchmarks. Predictable Winners is a comprehensive handbook of best practices for improving the odds of success at every step of the innovation journey—from concept development through commercial launch and beyond. Product leaders, innovation teams, and senior executives will find practical insights to reduce product risk and improve R&D effectiveness and ROI, while delighting customers with a pipeline of compelling new products and services.

The authors' systematic approach is covered step-by-step in twenty-five chapters on topics like assembling the right team, identifying innovation opportunities, conducting a disciplined, data-driven assessment of a new product's revenue potential, making wise investment decisions, and more. Predictable Winners also details how to use quantitative tools to disaggregate and reduce the distinct risks around competing product concepts, customer segments, channels, pricing, and launch planning. Finally, because not all breakthrough innovation comes from internal teams, the authors also explain advanced strategies for improving the odds of success: balancing organic innovation with external acquisitions or licensing.

"Success today is often about which teams can change and innovate the fastest. This book will help organizations get new products right the first time. It should be a cornerstone of management development programs."
—Paul Walsh, Chairman McLaren Group

"...a menu of options to optimize your chances of winning with new innovations. The framework in this book will help you move faster, be smarter in defining the market and the potential upside, and execute with confidence to increase your chances of success."
—Ania Smith, CEO, TaskRabbit

"This is how investors want their CEOs to think. When does a team seek input into product/market fit? Not just at the outset, but every day along the way. When does a team stop pressure-testing the product concept against the market need? Never. When does a product owner stop listening? Never. The lessons provided by the authors are practical, applicable, and invaluable."
—Paul LaViolette, Managing Partner, SV Health Investors, former COO Boston Scientific

"One thing I really like about this book is its strategic approach to both internal product development and acquisition of innovative new platforms. Few organizations combine both effectively."
—Kevin Mayer, CEO Candle Media, Former CEO TikTok

"Provides a great framework for those of us involved in early-stage product platform development as we make the tough calls on where to place our investment bets."
—Paul K. Wooton, Adjunct Professor, Rice Bioengineering & Exec Director Rice Biotech Launch Pad


Stuart Jackson led L.E.K. Consulting as Global Managing Partner and now serves as Vice Chair. He has worked with hundreds of clients who have enjoyed higher growth, increased their profit margins in existing businesses, added scores of new services and products, and completed more than 100 merger and acquisition transactions. He is a past recipient of Consulting Magazine's Top 25 Consultants award. He is the author of the highly acclaimed book Where Value Hides: A New Way to Uncover Profitable Growth for Your Business (Wiley, 2006) and has contributed to The Wall Street Journal, The Journal of Business Strategy and Harvard Business Review.Ilya Trakhtenberg is a Managing Director with L.E.K. Consulting and a leading partner in its healthcare practice. In his 15 years with L.E.K., he has led hundreds of engagements with a wide range of corporate and private equity clients to develop and launch innovative new products, accelerate business growth, and deliver superior investment returns. He has published more than a dozen journal articles, serves as a regular speaker at industry conferences, and founded L.E.K.'s MedTech Launch Center of Excellence. Ilya is also a past recipient of M&A Advisor's Emerging Leaders Award and a board member of L.E.K.'s global Sustainability Centre of Excellence.
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